Part II
Premise
I start this section with
the fundamental premise that genuine commitment to fundamental human rights and freedom that will assure lasting peace
and national reconciliation for Ethiopia--singularly the
most critical governance gaps are nowhere in sight if left to the governing party and the divided, leaderless and clueless
opposition. Why is this so important?
In this century, durable
peace and stability cannot be imposed from the top down by force by any elite to serve itself permanently. Recurring
violations of human rights and freedom, manipulation
of elections and recurrent rent-seeking by public and private officials
diminish Ethiopia’s considerable potential
to become a great and prosperous country. Skeptics wonder if Ethiopia would ever become a great and prosperous
country. I have no doubt that it can be. For example, Ethiopia can serve as a major hub of
agriculture-based industry producing world class textiles, leather goods, grains, processed and other
foods to meet domestic demand and for export.
It can serve as major tourist destination attracting millions of tourists each
year and generating permanent
employment for hundreds of thousands. It has substantial potential to export electricity and water to neighbouring countries
while satisfying domestic demand multi- fold.
All these and more means new employment for millions, a strong domestic private
sector and a growing middle class. For
the government, it would mean more and reliable taxes and freedom from foreign aid. These and more require dramatic
reorientation of governance, fair
and free
elections, a free press, shift in the paradigm of thinking and greater
attention to and investment in civil
society participation that is not encumbered by elite and intellectual manufactured barriers and divisions. These man-made
barriers are hurting the country and the vast
majority of the population.
The ruling party is not
alone in deterring fulfilment of Ethiopia’s enormous potential. Equally, the quarrelling political and civic opposition groups
abroad and at home have ceased to serve the
national purpose of defending and advancing Ethiopia’s vital long term
interests and promoting solidarity,
national cohesion and shared prosperity. Whether they live abroad or at home, most of
those who are educated have fallen into the TPLF trap of thinking, organizing
and acting as members of tribes and sub-groups rather than as Ethiopians. ኢትዮጵያ ለራሷና ለመላው ሕዝቧ እንባ ጠባቄ ያላት አገር አትመስልም። These gaps in the way we think,
organize and act towards one another have made the country more vulnerable than anyone of us is willing to admit or
accept. We are all accountable for this in one form or another. We do not have to be Jeff Sachs, the
well-known economist, who talks endlessly about
sustainable and equitable development. Those of us with a modicum of education should know that sustainable and equitable
development emanates from good and
accountable
governance and from the participation of committed and hardworking citizens who care for one another and for their country.
Opposition groups and the Diaspora have failed to place Ethiopia’s and the peoples’ interests ahead of
themselves. They therefore share the blame with the governing party.
“ሕዝቡ ካወጣነው ከድህነት ጣጣ፤
አደራ ከህዋስ ታዲያ ከየት መጣ?
ኪራይ ሰብሳቢነት ከቁንጮው ከቀረ፤ አስራት ከዘከረ፤
ሕዝብ በመሪው አምኖ ልማት ከዘመረ፤
በሺታ ቸነፈር ሰቆቃ ባልኖረ።”
የህወሓት/ኢህአዴግ አመራር ይህን በእንቅጩ የቀረበ ሰቆቃ አይቀበልም። እንዲያውም ይክዳል።
It is true that “double
digit” growth can occur in any country that receives substantial aid but the benefits rarely trickle down; the primary
beneficiaries are those who run the state and or are aligned to the state. No matter how one looks at it,
90 percent of Ethiopians are sickened by
a state that is rotten to the core and would reject the current ruling party if
elections were held today and
administered freely, openly and fairly. Why is this so? The World Bank showed twice in 12 months that state institutions and officials
are corrupt to the core. Nepotism,
bribery and
corruption are debilitating Ethiopians regardless of ethnic, religious or
demographic affiliation. Given this
debilitating picture, who stands for the national interest? Who really cares whether Ethiopians live a better life than the current
one or youth are employed or forced to flee
in search of a better life abroad? Who is accountable and responsible for the
welfare of the country and its
people? For people to behave and act as
responsible and patriotic citizens,
especially at
times of national threat (the current situation), they must feel that they are treated fairly and with dignity and that the benefits of
growth are shared. It is uncommon for Ethiopians
to leave their country in droves as destiny.
Ethiopia is a country of
resilient people. They have enormous pride in their country and have confidence in its potential to prosper. Yet, there is no
trust in the governing party and officials know it if they open their eyes and ears. People have
been expressing their desire and demands for
justice, equality of treatment under the law, fair access to opportunities and
freedom to debate, to vote and to negotiate.
If the governing party and the rest of us wish a strong Ethiopia, it behoves us to accept the simple notion that
Ethiopians deserve to be heard by their government. They deserve to live without fear and
with the provision of basic necessities. Enduring
peace emanates solely from a just, inclusive and participatory government and
state. The acid test today is whether or not the ruling party is confident,
bold and nationalist enough to open social, economic,
political and cultural space for everyone. I say this because the TPLF/EPRDF paradigm of ethnic and religious division and
supremacy is offering Ethiopia’s traditional enemies,
especially Egypt, windows of opportunity to weaken and dismantle it. Some in the opposition repeat the same mistake by
aligning themselves with the country’s traditional
enemies that wish to weaken and or dismantle it once and for all. The chorus of
anti-Ethiopian sentiment I heard in Doha represents this threat. It is real and
imminent. The Saudi official on a visit to
Khartoum who made threatening remarks about the Great Renaissance Dam on the Abbay River is not an isolated phenomenon. It is a coordinated chorus.
What is the imminent danger?
Listen to what Egyptian
generals, political leaders and intellectuals and their backers are saying and make conclusions for yourself. One general made the
unbelievable remark that Egypt “has
legitimate
claim to one-third of Ethiopia.” How did he come to this conclusion? Who has he coopted to do Egypt’s dirty proxy-wars? Is there a secret deal in the same way as the
TPLF deal with the Sudanese to cede
Ethiopian territory? What we know is that the sieve through which this strategy to weaken and dismantle Ethiopia is the
ideology of ethnic elite divide and capture that angers millions of Ethiopians left out from the
benefits of growth. For this reason alone, ethnic politics must be replaced by national or Ethiopian
politics and institutions fast. Eroding Ethiopian
values is a recipe for disaster. Egypt and others are using ethnic elite
divisions and political elite aspirants
to weaken and dismantle what is left of Ethiopia. The current government leadership and equally the opposition would be
wise to set aside differences to save Ethiopia and the
Ethiopian people from misery and man-made destruction.
In addition to the
repression by the governing party on which much has been said, continued divisions, petty rivalry, jealousy, individualism and
in-fighting among Ethiopian opposition, civic, faith, political and intellectual groups is eroding what
is left of Ethiopia’s proud culture of patriotism,
bravery, sense of community and ability to stand up and fight for the greater
good rather than for self, group and
other narrow interests. The diminution of core Ethiopian values, for example, undeterred commitment to Ethiopia’s unity
and territorial integrity, the country’s right
to use its national resources to improve Ethiopian lives, the capacity and
willingness to defend human rights and
freedoms of citizens at home and abroad without any distinction, etc. diminish our collective will and strengths as a society.
I find this to be a more compelling
weakness in
Ethiopia’s resiliency to withstand external threat than any other variable.
Just think of this simple preposition. The
ruling party did not have the wisdom from the start to anticipate that ethnic divisions and ethnic elite political and
economic capture will ultimately cost. Simply put, the TPLF core and its allies implanted an intolerant
political, social and religious society. One
cannot expect a different outcome through hate, arrogance, dismissive and
accusatory thinking. It is therefore not
farfetched to see danger in this construction of governance that fails to serve an enduring national purpose. Ethiopia’s
traditional enemies thrive on this. Remember, this is how the TPLF took power. Ethiopia’s enemies have
always relied on proxies within to
achieve
their goals. The secession of Eritrea and the rise of ethnic elites to power is
illustrative. Go to any social or
political or even religious meeting in the diaspora. Division is everywhere and people think and assume that it is healthy. I am not
talking about diversity and diverse
thinking;
both are healthy. We live in a diverse America. India is diverse and tolerant.
Our divisions are scary and damaging
to the fabric of Ethiopian society and endanger the very existence of the country. They are antagonistic. What is
tragic is that such divisive world views are
not limited to the governing party. The culture of division is widespread. The
Diaspora is a prime example. Can anyone
come up with a reason why Ethiopians with advanced education and who live in Western democracies are incapable to sit
together around a conference table,
debate ideas
and come-up with viable options for their country? Why are opposition groups that reject the TPLF/EPRDF incapable of setting aside
non-strategic differences and offer the Ethiopian
people a better alternative? Why are civil society groups unable to learn from Armenia? The Irish? The Palestinians? The Jewish
community etc. in forming formidable
multi-ethnic
civic, human rights and political groups? We cannot attribute the phenomenon solely to the TPLF/EPRDF. The vast human capital of
Ethiopians in the Diaspora has done little to nothing to bridge differences and to promote healthy
conversations and offer policy alternatives. It has sunk
to the status of being self-serving.
We are our own
worst enemies
Back to the Egyptian
example. I realized in my discussions with many Egyptian experts (in Doha, the GCC and Egypt) that, unlike Ethiopians, Egyptian
society is united and speaks with one voice concerning Egyptian hegemony over the Nile. Egyptians
seem to understand that Ethiopian
society is
polarized by political elites and non-caring intellectuals. Egyptians and
Saudis are exploiting this division to
maximum advantage by financing various groups. In short, Egyptians have a national purpose. On the other hand, the Ethiopian
ruling party is more preoccupied with suffocating all
forms of dissent using all kinds of pretexts and prolonging its power than in serving Ethiopia’s national interests and the welfare of
its diverse population. For example, 23 years
after it took power, it has done nothing to allow let alone create an
empowering political, social, economic and
religious environment that strengthen a sense of Ethiopian community that transcends ethnic and religious affiliation. It has not set in motion the critical
conditions that will create national
cohesion as Ethiopians. In my estimation, it is such national cohesion and shared prosperity that will serve as buffers against
any foreign aggression whether Egyptian or other. Adwa
is a prime example. It was a victory of all Ethiopians regardless of wealth, religion or ethnicity. Unfortunately for Ethiopia
and its 94 million people, this cohesion won’t
occur under current governance. Why? The governing party is incapable of
reforming itself. It is afraid of
any form of peaceful dissent. I say this for a reason. The danger is all out there for us to see. This phenomenon is much aggravated
by a divided civil society and opposition and by a
dysfunctional ruling party that does not read the dangers on the horizon and continues suffocating all forms of human rights and
freedom. The ruling party’s singular
and blind
preoccupation with sheer political power and economic capture by the few for
the few is a recipe for an impending
crisis for which everyone will pay a price.
Is there peace and stability?
Briefly stated, Ethiopia
has the appearance of peace and stability. Social and political fissures are everywhere to see. Diversity
is used as a wedge rather than as an asset. Evidence shows that government has not tapped fully into the country’s
immense diversity, natural resources, strategic
location as a hub of the African continent and as a bridge to North Africa and
the Middle East. It has not offered
its youthful population—64 percent under 35—employment opportunity. It has not harnessed modern information
technology that is transforming poor
societies to
tackle poverty, boosting the middle class and increasing incomes (Bangladesh, Kenya) etc.
etc. The
Ethiopian government is one of the few anywhere in the world to retain state control of the telecommunication sector, a cash
cow. “The absence of competition has
seen a
country of 94 million lag badly behind the rest of the continent in an industry
that has generally burgeoned alongside
economic growth…with mobile phone penetration of 70 percent in SSA
compared to a paltry 2.5 percent in Ethiopia; internet access of 40 percent in
Kenya.” 4/ Modern IT opens windows for
private enterprise and employment. It enhances freedom and facilitates knowledge transfer. It serves as an essential
tool for youth to better themselves. It is at the heart of the quest for choice and freedom from
poverty and oppression. Government unwillingness to give
space; to be all inclusive; and to unleash the creative potential of the country’s youth and to harness the peace, gender
(females) and information technology
dividend,
including freedom of expression, have diminished national social cohesion, productivity and the emergence of a robust national
private sector. Africa Business quotes Guang
Z Chen, World Bank Country Director, Ethiopia, who asked the Ethiopian
government “to allow the private sector
to play a bigger role in the economy.” Chen says, “For the country to continue to grow I strongly believe industry has to take
a much bigger role because there is no other
country that I am aware of, aside from resource-rich countries, that can grow
to middle income status with still 50
percent of GDP on agriculture.” The private sector suffers from lack of access to credit, foreign exchange, land, licenses and
permits. Procurement of goods and
services is
not transparent or competitive. “Making credit available for the private sector
is certainly one area the government
can do more. The trend that worries us is that while the public investment (the biggest source of bribery,
favoritism and corruption) as a share of GDP is increasing,
the private sector as a share of GDP is decreasing” as are savings. Illicit
outflow of scarce capital continues
unabated, reducing capital resources.
By all measurements, the
government fails to empower and unleash Ethiopia’s productive potential. It gives preferences to foreigners at a cost
to Ethiopian entrepreneurs. It counters national
cohesion and integration, the opposite of global trends. A 2010 Gallop Poll shows that trust in government and its institutions is among the
lowest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Those with wealth
make money without generating employment and without creating national wealth
for the country and its people. Some
fear that a nationalist government would go after their ill-gotten wealth. Some
say that they are leaving the country in droves and voting against the government by not investing in their homeland. Whatever
the motive, it is the people who are
being bled
dry. The only institutions in which there is a high level of trust is in faith
institutions: Christianity and Islam.
However, both are under constant harassment by the ruling party.
Reform must be relentless,
inclusive and empowering
Ethiopia is one of the
few countries in the world where social change has always come from within. The 1974 Revolution was a result of the Ethiopian
Student’s Movement that galvanized
the entire
society. It was national and not ethnic or religious. It was transformative but
not well designed, planned or executed. In
this sense, the country has gone backwards: from a national to that of an ethnic political and social culture. I have
argued that this type of social and political culture entails risks and unintended consequences.
Observers within and outside Ethiopia agree that the Socialist Military Dictatorship that toppled the
Haile Selassie government in 1974 and ruled
the country with an iron-fist for 17 years was among the most oppressive. Its
leaders, leftist groups with different
ideologies and motives, foreign sponsors, ethnic-based liberation movements, supporters of the defunct Imperial system and
others turned the country into a blood bath. An entire
generation was lost. Hundreds of thousands of young people were murdered; and hundreds of thousands fled. This period
triggered the first wave of human capital flight at a massive scale. A trend was
established. Before then, Ethiopians sent overseas for further
education returned home. Today, an estimated
5.5 million Ethiopians— almost all with high
school education and 1/3rd with college education--live and work in the two Sudans, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, Western Europe, North
America, Australia, New Zealand and numerous Sub-Saharan
African countries. Ninety one percent of domestic workers in the GCC are Ethiopian females aged 20-30. In 2009, 42,000
Ethiopians, most of them young, left
through
Yemen. According to one Canadian institution, between 1991 (when the TPLF/EPRDF took power) and 2006 (after the 2005 elections were
reversed), Ethiopia trained 3,700 medical doctors.
Of the total 3,000 left the country. This brain-drain continues unabated. An estimated 80 percent of educated and trained Ethiopians leave the
country. Simply put, no matter how much money we remit each year ( In 2011, the World Bank
disputed Ethiopian lower government data and
estimated that Ethiopia’s growing Diaspora remitted more than $3 billion per year), Ethiopia’s national growth will be diminished
by brain-drain for decades to come. It is true
that many in the diaspora have vested interests and contribute to the glitz
economy.
Has the
ruling party lost its ways?
It seems that way. In
political science, they say that “Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” This is the case with the
TPLF/EPRDF core. It has no soul. It sees nothing wrong with the current unjust and unfair distribution of
wealth and incomes. There is no doubt that
when it took power the TPLF dominated ethnic-coalition offered a promising
start toward democratization. The
world community accepted it as a positive force in doing what is good for the entire society. However, like its predecessor, it
failed to seize opportunities to advance genuine
democracy. Most people, especially youth, were jubilant when the new government seized power in 1991 for four reasons. First, the repressive regime was
removed through collective revolt; second, a
new Constitution with democratic content was promulgated; third, ethnic-regions were granted autonomy; and
fourth, a new era of growth, justice, peace, inclusion and political pluralism was proclaimed. All
these have evaporated.
The selling point of the
new ethnic elites in power was this. The Transitional Government of Ethiopia (TGE) offered a compelling argument that “it
stood for human rights, press freedom, political
pluralism, the rule of law, equality of all nations etc.” While donors praise
Ethiopia’s remarkable growth, albeit from a
low base, human rights groups and unattached development experts question the spread of social benefits. “Meles
engineered one party rule in effect for the
TPLF and his Tigray inner circle, with complicity of other ethnic elites that
were coopted into the ruling
alliance….Ethiopia’s
much praised economic development is not as robust or cost-free ….as the international community believes…The system was
entirely dependent on central authority or
command and control.” This does not mean that there is no growth. It will be impossible to receive aid without showing some growth.
Education opportunities have expanded. But quality is low. In recent survey, Ethiopia ranked 126 of 127
in access and quality of education. The number
of colleges and universities has increased. Roads, bridges, hydroelectric dams, etc. have been built. Equally, it
will be unthinkable to siphon-off capital unless
there is something to siphon or steal.
Sharp criticism of
“Ethiopia’s renaissance” is buffeted by others. Following the death of Prime Minister Meles in August 2012, Halvorssen and Gladstein
of Forbes critiqued donors and the
Ethiopian
government’s Anti-Terrorist Law. “Those in the West heaping praise on
Zenawi—all living in societies that suffered
so much to achieve individual liberty are engaging in dramatic hypocrisy. In a 2009 UK Department of International
Development sponsored study of Ethiopia’s growth Stefan
Dercon and Ruth Vargas suggested that “The magnitude of this growth and the fact that it has been achieved with little change
in input use suggests something is not right
with the data on agriculture,” the leading sector in the country. In 2012, the
IMF questioned Ethiopia’s growth
sustainability. “The sustainability of Ethiopia’s growth model over the medium term is uncertain, given the constraints on
private sector development, the absence of savings
incentives, lack of financial reform, etc.” Despite these policy and structural limitations, the government argues that export-driven
growth is possible without the domestic private
sector. Critics argue that mega projects (hydro) to export and generate foreign exchange do not respond to the real need of improving
smallholder agricultural productivity, domestic
agriculture-based industrialization and employment generation. In other words,
state and party-led growth alone cannot
create sustainability without competition and participation.
If we accept the thesis
that Ethiopia’s development story is not “as robust and cost free” as the government and donors claim, what is the root policy
cause? It is lack of freedom and predictability that
private property is protected by law and cannot be affected by political decisions. Private sector development in Ethiopia is
virtually impossible without a favorable investment
regulatory system that levels the playing field. The rule of law and the
judicial system must be above the party,
sacrosanct and predictable. In 2013, the
country ranked “49.4 percent, making its
economy the 146th freest or among the least free in the world. It has gone down by 2.6 %; lower in 6 of 10 indices: trade, workers’
rights, financial movement, investment, etc.”
It ranks 32nd of 46 African countries. “Regulatory efficiency remains weak,
creating an unfavorable climate for
entrepreneurial activity…The foundations of economic freedom are quite fragile, and particularly because of pervasive
corruption and a deficient judicial
system…Corruption
further undermines the foundation of economic freedom.” It goes without saying that this suffocating environment limits
productivity and efficiency severely. As a result, both the country and consumers
suffer.
Human Rights Watch has
done more than any human rights organization to show the flaws of
Ethiopia’s authoritarian
governance in general and the nexus between massive aid inflow on the one hand and discrimination, nepotism, corruption and
repression on the other. “Development aid flows
through, and supports a virtual one-party state with a deplorable human rights record. Government practices include jailing
and silencing critics and media, enacting laws to
undermine human rights activity, and hobbling the political system.” Aid is routinely used to punish opponents and reward supporters.
Massive amounts of money is siphoned-off for private
gain. The effect of this on the population is substantial. “The Ethiopian population pays a heavy price for this approach in
development” in economic, social and
political
terms. The 2005 elections that the opposition won and then lost through
political decision is a prime example.
Similarly, in 2010, “the EPRDF won 99.6 percent of parliamentary seats,” making a mockery of the electoral process.
Competition was not allowed.
Continued suffocation of human
rights and freedoms is dangerous for Ethiopia
Hope among Ethiopians
that the ruling party would be open to reform has evaporated. It shows no inclination to reform itself. “Ethiopian authorities
have subjected political detainees to torture
and other ill-treatment at the main detention center in Addis Ababa. In a 70
page report, Human Rights Watch
“documents serious human rights abuses, unlawful interrogation tactics…beatings, torture and coerced confessions.” The
US Department of State’s 2013 report
is dire as
ever. Ethiopia is home to one of the largest political prisoner populations in
the world. It is also one of the top ten
jailers of journalists. The court system caters to the party alone. “Ethiopia’s courts are politicized and lack
independence.” Their role is to serve the ruling party and not to administer justice. “Beatings, torture and
coerced confession are no way to deal with
journalists or the political opposition.” It does this against in violation of
the country’s constitution. “Ethiopia’s
Constitution and international legal commitments require officials to protect all detainees from mistreatment….Real change
demands action from the highest levels of
government against those responsible to root out the underlying culture of
impunity.” The system
validates and sustains impunity. This impunity is expansive. Bribery,
ethnic-based nepotism, high corruption
and illicit outflow of funds stem from the system itself. High officials and top military officers operate above the law and all
are vested in the system that enriches them.
In short, the system survives by bribing, paying, rewarding and enriching those
who are hired to serve the county and the
public.
Top officials of the
governing party do not see anything wrong with their manipulation of the Constitution and with violation of human rights contained
in international agreements. Following the aftermath
of the 2005 elections in which 200 young and innocent Ethiopians were massacred, Ana Gomes, member of the European
Parliament and Head of the EU Election Team
to Ethiopia saw the danger of impunity as a political culture. She concluded,
“As long as the Meles regime is in power, I
will never believe in an election in Ethiopia.” Meles is gone but his legacy remains intact. Measured in terms of freedom,
human rights, transparency, fair and
open
political and economic competition and rampant and systemic corruption the
country is worse off than it was in 2005 and
2010. To his credit, Prime Minister Hailemariam Dessalegn is fully cognizant of the dangers the country faces in one
area of poor-governance, namely, corruption. A few high officials have been
arrested. However, the system breeds corruption and those at the top who use the state to make
themselves, their families and friends rich are central to the problem. They operate above the law. The
public sector investment led strategy of relentless public borrowing, aid, remittances,
commercial loans etc. offers a window of opportunity
for theft, graft, kickbacks, corruption and illicit outflow through
procurement, customs etc. As the system is infected from the top down;
it will not stop until and unless the system
is overhauled radically. This requires wisdom and political openness and competition;
a modern monitoring system; and the
establishment of an independent oversight consisting of civil society and prominent individuals with impeccable
integrity. Transparency International, UNDP
and Global Financial Integrity provided documentary evidence showing systemic corruption that requires real commitment to hold corrupt
officials at the top and private individuals accountable,
including freezing their assets and going after their ill-earned wealth abroad. Why? “The people of Ethiopia are being bled dry. No matter how hard
they try to fight
their way out of absolute destitution and poverty, they will be swimming
against the current
of illicit capital leakage.”
Ethiopia faces intractable
vulnerabilities and risks
The hurdle Ethiopia faces
on the economic front is equally prevalent on the human rights front and social development. “Rather than working to build a
development strategy grounded in human rights, the
Ethiopian government is attempting to hoodwink its human rights record, leaving unmentioned its Villagization Program and the
Anti-Terrorist Proclamation—both used by
the government as significant justification for forced resettlement, arbitrary
detention, and politically motivated
arrests. Tools used in implementing projects reinforce violation of human rights and the uprooting of indigenous people from their
lands all in the name of development
“without
freedom.” The lack of people-centered development contributes directly to the prevailing phenomenon of growth for the few and a gaping
inequity that will feed into and cause social unrest
similar to Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Egypt and rest. This feeds to the threat the country faces.
Here is the good news,
Ethiopian society has overcome its veil of fear imposed by the system.Opposition
groups, spiritual leaders, some members of the governing party and others are openly critical of the government. Women showed their
courage recently demanding justice,
inclusion
and democracy. Peaceful protests are common. Some of the party’s hard core supporters are critical of corruption and open favoritism
in hiring and licensing. While this may be
a trend, think tanks such as Human Rights Watch and Oakland Institute do not
see sustainable development unless
human rights and freedoms are protected by law and enforced by the government. Undeniable is the trend that the genie
of corruption and fear is out of the
box and the
quest for freedom is unstoppable. The option is not more repression. It is
opening- up political and social space
sooner than later. Those in the Diaspora and opposition groups within the country have the moral responsibility to focus
on those policy issues that they share as
Ethiopian citizens and have the courage and will to challenge the ruling party.
In sum, “No Human Rights=No
Development. No human rights and fundamental freedoms=No national Cohesion,
Solidarity and Stability.
The regime breeds enemies rather
than friends
Ethiopia is most likely
to face immense challenges in the years ahead from a man-made governance hurdle of ethnic and religious divisions, a
regime that is unwilling to change and an opposition
that lacks a national purpose and suffers from fragmentation and wise
leadership. “It is probable that the new
government will be more fragile, the security forces more influential and internal stability endangered,” says ICG.
This is generally true in the Ogaden, Gambella,
the Omo Valley, Oromia and pockets of the Amhara and Beni-Shangul regions. In
its 2013 report to the UN, the
Ethiopian Women’s Human Rights Alliance (EWHRA) points out that “The Anti-Terrorist Law allows the government to promote
policies which foster ethnic and religious hostilities and
to label opposition groups as terrorist organizations, thereby eliminating all dissent and creating an environment of
fear of reprisals for challenging the government.”
Especially worrisome is deliberate provocation of ethnic conflict that pities
one group against another; and ethnic
cleansing and displacement that forces people to revolt. “Ethnicity permeates politics of the country and the
ruling party has been unable and unwilling to create a broader political base in this complex and
diverse country. The current party
dominates
the political scene and governs through limited popular participation.”
In short, for Ethiopia to
protect its national unity and territorial integrity, the TPLF/EPRDF has no other choice but embrace Ethiopian nationalism and
Ethiopian long-term interest. It must recognize
that trust of the vast majority won’t occur without genuine reform. The history
of the core group, the TPLF, which
commands political and economic power will not happen through fear and repression. It facilitated the secession of
Eritrea and made Ethiopia land-locked. It mobilized
Ethiopians, sacrificed the lives of 70,000 to 100,000 lives and squandered
billions of Birr for a war whose end game
proved to be a disaster. I should like to ask the reader a simple question. If the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and his
cohort had the resolve to defend Badme, an Ethiopian
territory in the Tigray Region, what motivated his successor, Prime Minister Haile Mariam Dessalegn to cede Ethiopian
territory that previous governments
defended to
the Sudan? I refer to the secret deal of transferring Ethiopian territory to
the Sudan and by offering the false
argument that it was simply “implementing agreements reached by previous governments.” The new PM offers no
credible evidence.
Colonel Mengistu
Hailemariam, former President of Ethiopia and the only surviving head of state rejected the story and asked the ruling party to
provide concrete evidence. Therefore, the ruling
party has no integrity. In the later example, it decided to take the Sudanese
position rather than siding with the
Ethiopian people and defending Ethiopia’s national interests. Ironically and regardless of the rhetoric the Sudanese
Government has close military ties with Egypt.
Given looming dangers, especially threats from the Arab World (Egypt is the
leader), the governing party must
change its ways now. It must listen to dissenting voices and accommodate all stakeholders in order to survive and to
gain legitimacy. Ethiopia possesses
untapped
resources and deserves to join breakout nations that are on the way to
prosperity. In the 1980s and early
1990s, Sub-Saharan Africa was considered a “basket case.” Today, the region is home to some of the fastest growing economies
in the world. Ethiopia is included in
this newly emerging club.
However, as the above analysis shows, it lags behind in numerous critical areas, freedom, political pluralism, the use of
information technology for development, per
capita income, etc. Ninety percent of the population is poor. Thousands of
young people leave
the country each year. This in itself shows that the foundation of its growth
is shallow. “A nation can climb the
ladder (of growth) for a decade, two decades, three decades, only to hit a snake and fall back to the bottom, where it must start
over again, and may be again and again.” There
is no doubt that quantitatively, Ethiopia grew fast in the late 1960s and fell
in the late 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s. It
began to climb up again since 2005. There is no certainty thatgrowth will
continue at the same level unless fundamental reforms are carried-out.
Commentary Part III will focus on why squandering Ethiopia’s natural
resources is dangerous for the governing party.
By Aklog Birara, PhD
